Washington, D.C. flew into a panic last weekend. Schools closed, parents scrambled, flights were canceled, and mayors declared emergencies.
“There’s a storm coming!” people in and around the nation’s capital exclaimed Sunday night. “Are you ready? Charge your phone, so you can call for help! But unplug your laptop, because of lightning! Prune the trees! Fill your bathtubs! Juice up your generator! Stay away from windows! Hoard power bars! Hunker down!”
Then, not a lot happened.
The severe weather—rain, hail, tornadoes, and hurricane-force wind gusts—predicted for Monday, March 16, never quite blew into town.
My family and I dared to venture out for a birthday dinner in what turned out to be a light mist. After all the dire predictions, it was almost disappointing. It was almost refreshing.
“What a HORRIBLE forecast by meteorologists — especially myself,” local meteorologist Matthew Cappucci wrote on X, “…essentially a nothing-burger…” He posted a video noting that schools, airlines, cities and families had upset their plans, “…much of it under my advice…Ten million people were notified of something that didn’t really wind up happening.”
He explained that storms moving through the Carolinas reduced the “storm fuel” of warmer air expected to meet a cold front and whip up turbulence. To be sure, there were winds and rain strong enough to fell several trees, flood a few roads, and knock out power in some Maryland and Virginia suburbs.
Another meteorologist, Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd of the University of Georgia, wrote in Forbes that “A level 4 or 5 storm in the D.C. area is rare,” and that preparation was absolutely warranted in places like D.C.
Still, Cappucci said, “We made a horrible forecast.” Then he explained why the mistake happened and added words rarely heard from experts who offer confident predictions on many platforms: “I’m sorry.”
Cappucci has been praised for clearly explaining the process that led to his bum prediction. He seems a rare figure among Beltway pundits—someone who acknowledges his mistakes instead of just blowing hot air.