Dave O’Brien is blunt about how the Trump administration’s policies are hitting farmers.
“They’re choking us. We are getting choked out here,” he said. “This is not going to end well.”
O’Brien has grown corn and soybeans for 50 years in northern Illinois. A voter who has supported both parties, he’s frustrated with the Republican Party in the Trump era.
Since the U.S. began bombing Iran, restricted travel through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the flow of nitrogen fertilizer, pushing prices sharply higher. That comes on top of rising fuel costs. “You and I go to the gas station, and we’re shocked when we got to spend $36 to fill our darn tank up,” he said, noting farmers buy thousands of dollars of diesel. “Five-hundred gallons times $4 or $5 — there you go right there. It’s just crazy.”
Deportations have thinned the labor force for some farms. Tariffs raised prices for goods like machinery and increased tensions with China, the U.S.’s top soybean buyer. A recently delayed meeting with China helped send soybean prices down.
Joseph Glauber, a former Agriculture Department chief economist, says many farm balance sheets look weak. “If you just look at the cash side of the business, in terms of what they receive for their crops and what they have to pay out, those margins have been tight and in some cases negative,” he said.
Those pressures can compound. Nitrogen fertilizer is used on corn but not soybeans; higher corn input costs can push farmers to plant more soybeans. “Market analysts are thinking that maybe a million, million and a half, acres or more could switch from corn into soybeans, which, of course — that has also contributed to a lower soybean price,” Glauber said.
Farming is always unpredictable — weather, foreign political events and other shocks make markets volatile. But U.S. policy choices can worsen the uncertainty. In Trump’s first term, tariffs led China to buy more soybeans from South America instead of the U.S., a shift that has persisted.
Trump appears aware of farmers’ struggles. He recently demanded in all caps on social media that Congress “PASS THE FARM BILL, NOW.” In a statement to NPR, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said, “Our farmers are moving into planting season, and the President is aware of these challenges. We are looking at every potential option to lower fertilizer prices.”
The Agriculture Department highlighted assistance to farmers, including a $12 billion December program aimed at supporting producers through “temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs.” Federal direct aid to farmers exceeded $30 billion last year.
That aid helps, Glauber says, but has limits. “You got to think that providing 20, 30 billion dollars in additional money to the [agriculture] sector is not something that’s going to happen year in, year out,” he said.
Gary Wertish, president of the Minnesota Farmers Union and longtime farmer and adviser, views Trump’s subsidies as partly a political move to keep farmers supportive. “It’s not right for the U.S. taxpayer to keep bailing the farmers out, which obviously the farmers need it now. But we need policies that don’t require bailouts,” he said. “We need policies that the farmers get their money from the marketplace and not from the U.S. taxpayer.”
David Oman, former co-chair of the Iowa Republican Party, agrees that subsidies are also political. “I think it’s the truth, if you want to look at it that way,” he said. “And he isn’t the only president or the only person from a particular party to have tried to do that.”
Both Wertish and Oman say farmers prefer stability over one-time aid. “Most farmers, if they level with you, would tell you they’d rather have certainty than uncertainty,” Oman said. Longer-term predictability lets them decide whether to buy acres or make large capital purchases. Prolonged pain in agriculture could also hurt Republicans in midterm elections, including in Iowa, he warned.
Trump encourages taking a long view, saying short-term pain from policies like tariffs will yield long-term gain. O’Brien rejects that rationale. “It bothers me, these statements about, ‘Well, there’s going to be a little hurt to be spread around, but that’ll get better.’ I, quite frankly, don’t like that talk at all. Whether you’re talking about farmers or veterans, that’s almost an insult. But we’re supposed to take it in the ribs, but ‘I guarantee you’ll get better.'”
O’Brien worries about younger farmers and about the Iran war. Cash flows are tight while land values remain high, making it harder for new farmers to enter the business. “I can withstand all the pressure in the world but, man, these young guys,” he said. “I don’t know. It makes me nervous.”
A Vietnam veteran, O’Brien also views the conflict through his military experience. “It’s so frustrating, you know? And now you tell me, where is this war going to end up?” he said. “This to me, this just smells like Vietnam 2.0. I’m telling you, this is going to not end well.”
Whether the pressures come from Iran, tariffs or other policies, the pressing question for farmers isn’t just how these issues resolve but when.