Gold, cocoa and oil are in abundance in Ghana, which helps explain why the West African country often earns more from exports than it spends on imports. But export surpluses can hide arrangements that leave local producers worse off: to secure favourable access to foreign markets, Ghana and other African countries have granted market access that yields suboptimal returns domestically.
One stark example is poultry. Around 80% of chickens consumed in Ghana are imported frozen from Europe, the US or Brazil — exporters there frequently sell only breast fillets domestically and ship the remainder abroad. Even with import duties of about 30%, these frozen imports can be up to 35% cheaper than locally produced chicken, according to a 2023 study. The price gap is making poultry farming less attractive in Ghana. “If you produce the chicken, they’re not buying it. So you can’t produce it,” said Charles K. Donkor, chairman of the Poultry Farmers Association in Ashanti, who runs a farm supplying eggs rather than meat. “We can’t create jobs for young people this way.”
The broader context: for decades, treaties have aimed to structure trade between Europe and Africa. Starting with the Lome Convention in 1975 and followed by agreements named after summit locations (Cotonou in 2000 and Samoa in 2023), these frameworks — involving the Organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS/ACP) — form the basis for regional and bilateral trade deals. Today, 44 of Africa’s 54 countries have duty-free access to the EU internal market under these arrangements, and many fall under “everything but arms” rules for developing countries. But duty-free access does not guarantee balanced benefits.
DW’s analysis of 25 years of trade shows growing trade volumes both ways since 2000. Recently, several African economies ran overall trade surpluses with Europe — largely driven by oil and gas exports from countries such as Libya, Algeria, Nigeria and Angola. From 2020 to 2022 the value of these fossil fuel exports to the EU more than doubled amid pandemic-related price swings and the disruption following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Côte d’Ivoire is another outlier, posting surpluses from cocoa and rubber. Yet more than half of African countries have negative trade balances with Europe.
Quantity alone conceals structural imbalances. African exports to Europe are more volatile because they are often raw commodities priced on world markets; European exports to Africa tend to be processed or partially manufactured goods with steadier demand. “Africa exports many raw materials… Conversely, Africa imports industrial goods or products from Europe that already have a certain degree of manufacturing,” says Anja Berretta, Head of the Africa Regional Economic Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. She notes that exports from Africa to Europe represent about 25–30% of African exports, while the African market is relatively negligible for Europe — making African economies more dependent on European buyers than vice versa.
This imbalance is not only about trade flows but also about missed opportunities to add value locally. Many African economies have failed to reinvest commodity windfalls into industry diversification, leaving them exposed to price shocks. Berretta points to Ghana and Mauritius as positive examples where industrial policy supports diversification to cushion against such swings.
There are also prospects. Europe is seeking to diversify suppliers and reduce strategic risk, opening demand for Africa’s critical minerals and other resources. Joseph Matola of the South African Institute of International Affairs argues that Africa can capitalise on European interest in critical minerals and other inputs. He also stresses the need for African governments to prioritise exporting processed goods to capture more value domestically.
Two initiatives could reshape dynamics. The EU’s Global Gateway Initiative has pledged about €150 billion for infrastructure and energy projects in Africa, aiming to strengthen supply chains and investment ties. And the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), in force since 2021, seeks to standardise markets across 55 members and reduce non-tariff barriers — long customs delays, inconsistent procedures, poor infrastructure — that currently hinder intra-African trade. Reducing such barriers could make African markets more attractive for investment and help firms move goods faster across the continent.
Berretta sees AfCFTA as a potential boon for European exporters as well, by making regional markets more predictable. Matola suggests African states could use AfCFTA as a collective negotiating platform rather than bargaining individually, amplifying their diplomatic and economic leverage.
The challenges are many: divergent national policies, weak infrastructure, and limited reinvestment of commodity earnings into manufacturing capacity. But with coordinated industrial strategies, investment in processing and better intra-African trade facilitation, Africa could shift the terms of exchange to capture greater value and reduce its dependence on raw commodity exports.
Data, code and methodological choices behind this story are available in a public GitHub repository.
Isaac Kaledzi in Accra contributed reporting to this article.
Edited by: Sertan Sanderson