When Friedrich Merz and his coalition of CDU/CSU and the SPD took office on May 6, 2025, expectations were high. The new chancellor promised rapid economic recovery and major reforms to be delivered by autumn. One year later, momentum has stalled and frustration is widespread: compromises within the centrist coalition have proved difficult and slow, and voters are increasingly unhappy with the government’s performance.
A new ARD-Deutschlandtrend poll by infratest dimap finds 86% of respondents dissatisfied with the government. The representative survey of 1,303 eligible voters was carried out between May 4 and May 6, 2026. That marks a record low for a federal government in the Deutschlandtrend’s monthly series, which began in 1997. Only 44% of those surveyed think the government should remain in office until the next scheduled federal election in 2029.
If a snap election were held now, the poll shows the ruling coalition losing its majority and the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) becoming the clear frontrunner at 27% nationwide — an all-time high for the party in these surveys. The CDU/CSU bloc has fallen two points to 24% and sits in second place. The SPD is polling at 12%, the Greens at 15%, and the Left Party at 10%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the Free Democrats (FDP) are below the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag.
The AfD performs even stronger in regional voting intentions: in Saxony-Anhalt, where state elections are due in September, the AfD is polling at 41% compared with the incumbent CDU at 26%.
Can Merz reverse the trend? The chancellor has ruled out alternatives to the current coalition, but difficult negotiations lie ahead. A draft healthcare reform was presented in April, and pension reform is scheduled for debate before the summer recess. By year’s end the government aims to produce a major income tax overhaul intended to ease burdens on low- and middle-income earners, but how to pay for such cuts remains unresolved. The SPD favors higher taxes on the wealthy, a proposal rejected by the Union, underscoring the ideological tensions that slow decision-making.
Economic confidence has eroded sharply: while just over half of respondents trusted the conservative-led government to revive growth in June 2025, that share has fallen to 25% in the latest poll. Voters also rate the government poorly on social security and immigration, and six in ten say government action in the current crises has been inadequate.
Merz has argued that no previous chancellor faced such a difficult international environment, citing global conflicts and geopolitical instability. Yet many citizens refuse to accept those circumstances as an excuse for underperformance. Only 16% of respondents said they were somewhat satisfied with Merz — the lowest approval rating recorded for a chancellor in the survey — and eight in ten criticize his communication style.
On foreign and security policy, Germany is preparing for possible international missions. The German Navy has sent the minesweeper Fulda from Kiel and is preparing the supply ship Mosel, currently operating in the Aegean, for potential deployment to the Mediterranean. Those vessels could be readied quickly for a multinational operation in the Strait of Hormuz if circumstances require it; the poll shows half of respondents approve of German naval participation in such a mission.
Relations with the United States under President Donald Trump initially seemed cooperative, but notable differences of opinion have emerged. The public broadly supports Merz taking a firm stance and defending Germany’s positions, even if that risks friction with the US: only one in five respondents favors a more restrained German foreign policy aimed at avoiding provocation of Trump.
With rising support for the AfD and record levels of dissatisfaction, the Merz government faces urgent choices on economic relief, social policy and migration — and a short political runway to show progress before further erosion of public trust.
This article was translated from German.