Can a reliable US-protected passage for tankers and merchant ships be established in the Strait of Hormuz? Below is a clear summary of the main facts and questions about oil and gas shipments through this narrow, strategically vital waterway.
What is “Project Freedom”?
Project Freedom, as described by US Central Command (CENTCOM), will mobilize more than 100 land- and sea-based aircraft and roughly 15,000 service members. Its stated goal is to coordinate operations that help commercial vessels move through the Strait of Hormuz. Importantly, CENTCOM says the initiative does not mandate US Navy escorts of individual ships.
How many ships and crew are affected?
Shipping groups estimate about 1,000 vessels have been affected by the effective blockade around the strait, with roughly 20,000 crew members stranded and at least 25 ships struck by gunfire since late February, when regional fighting intensified. Industry sources such as Lloyd’s say maritime operators were not consulted in advance about US plans to relocate stranded ships.
Are ships still transiting the strait?
Yes, but traffic has collapsed and is intermittent. Before February 28, roughly 125–140 vessels transited daily; by April 30 only seven had passed in the previous day, according to Kpler. Both Iran and the United States have constrained movements: Iran’s measures since February 28 have required vessels to coordinate with Iranian authorities and have included reported tolls on oil tankers (about $1 per barrel), while a US campaign begun on April 13 targets ships entering or leaving Iranian ports and has sharply cut Iran’s crude exports to Asia.
What do shipping bodies say?
Groups such as BIMCO have urged restraint and called for measures to protect seafarers. Most shipping companies say they would need a stable ceasefire and guarantees from both sides before resuming normal transit. Mines and unexploded ordnance remain a particular safety concern.
Have insurance costs risen?
Yes. War-risk premiums for transits through the Strait of Hormuz have risen. Several major marine insurers suspended or limited war-risk coverage from early March; names reported include Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, the American Club, and MS&AD. German insurers note, however, that cover can still be arranged through market mechanisms, albeit at higher cost.
Why is the strait so important?
The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and is the primary chokepoint for exports from major OPEC producers—Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. In 2024 roughly 20 million barrels per day transited the strait, about one-fifth of global oil consumption. Qatar ships nearly all of its liquefied natural gas through the route, and roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade passes there as well.
Which states are most exposed?
Exposure varies. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran have some alternative export paths; Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain are more dependent on the strait. Iran can partially bypass Hormuz using the port of Jask on the Gulf of Oman, allowing tankers to reach the Arabian Sea without crossing the strait.
Has the US escorted ships before?
Yes. During the 1987 tanker war phase of the Iran–Iraq War, Kuwait requested US escorts for its tankers as hundreds of vessels were attacked. The US registered several Kuwaiti tankers under its flag. Of 239 oil tankers involved in that period, about 55 (roughly 23%) were completely sunk or declared lost; commercial traffic fell by about 25%. Oil prices rose briefly, but Iran’s pricing moves helped limit a sustained global spike.
Bottom line
Project Freedom increases US military presence and coordination in the area but does not automatically guarantee armed escorts for commercial ships. Restoring reliable shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will likely require a durable ceasefire, clear assurances from the parties involved, mine-clearance and safety checks, and workable insurance solutions for shipowners and operators.
This article was originally published in German.