China’s new zero‑tariff policy, which took effect on May 1, gives several of Africa’s largest economies tariff‑free access to Chinese markets for two years. Early signs that the scheme is already moving goods include the first shipments of Kenyan avocados to China this month, and exporters and farmers in some countries are optimistic about new opportunities.
The deal is likely to favor export‑ready, middle‑income African economies that can meet volume, packaging and sanitary standards. Kenyan coffee and horticulture producers, for example, are bullish: farmers say access to China’s vast consumer market could raise demand and improve incomes. Australia‑based economist Lauren Johnston describes the policy as a payoff mainly for Africa’s stronger, better‑positioned economies that can scale up exports quickly.
Trade between China and Africa reached a record $348 billion in 2025. African exports to China that year were worth roughly $123 billion, dominated by oil, minerals and other raw materials, while Africa imported about $225 billion of manufactured goods, electronics and machinery from China. The imbalance widened: China’s surplus with Africa rose to about $102 billion in 2025, compared with roughly $62 billion the previous year.
Many economists say the core issue is value addition. Ghanaian economist Adu Owusu Sarkodie notes that exporting raw commodities at low prices limits earnings; expanding local processing — for instance turning cocoa beans into cocoa butter and finished chocolate — would capture more value and jobs. Zero duties on processed goods would benefit local workers and firms far more than tariff relief on unprocessed raw materials that primarily help foreign factories.
Which countries look set to benefit most?
– Kenya: Already a leading exporter of tea, coffee, cut flowers and fresh produce, Kenya won almost complete zero‑duty access under an early agreement. Strong cold‑chain logistics, export relationships and sanitary standards give it a head start to grow shipments into China.
– South Africa: As one of the continent’s most diversified exporters, South Africa can leverage tariff relief for products ranging from rooibos tea to minerals such as gold and platinum to deepen links with Chinese supply chains.
– Ghana: Trade with China hit record levels in 2025, and there is real potential to expand processed exports. Policymakers face pressure to prioritize investment in local processing rather than rely solely on raw cocoa exports.
Limits and risks
The deal is much less beneficial for landlocked and logistics‑constrained countries. Mali and Niger, for example, face high overland costs to reach ports and lack the scale, certification capacity and packaging standards that many Chinese buyers require. Those logistics costs can erase tariff savings. Most freight between Africa and China currently routes via Dubai or Singapore, adding time and expense; China is investing in direct links, but improvements will take time.
Compliance with China’s food safety and phytosanitary rules is another hurdle. Chambers of commerce and export trainers are working to bring exporters up to standard, but testing, certification and quality control require investment that many small producers and poorer countries struggle to afford.
Strategic context
Part of the trade surge reflects China’s effort to diversify supply chains amid tensions with the United States and rising Chinese demand for green technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels. That demand has driven more imports of finished goods and components from China into Africa.
Beyond tariffs, Chinese influence in Africa often rests on long‑term financing for major projects. Business leaders note that Chinese firms often offer financing packages and construction financing that many Western partners will not, making Chinese deals attractive for big infrastructure and industrial projects.
Outlook
For Kenya, South Africa and Ghana the zero‑tariff policy is a tangible opening, but it is not an automatic fix. Real gains will depend on boosting processing, meeting standards, investing in logistics and leveraging the new market access to support industrial upgrading. For many of Africa’s smaller or less connected economies, the policy may be a limited opportunity unless accompanied by investment in ports, certification, transport and factories.
In the medium to long term, the policy could deepen China–Africa economic ties and may spur greater intra‑African trade if stronger exporters source inputs regionally. But the ultimate winners will be countries and businesses that combine market access with investments in value addition, logistics and compliance — not merely those that ship raw commodities tariff‑free.
(Reporting contributions from Nairobi.)