Around one-third of the world’s fertilizer shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow gateway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. With shipping through the strait reduced to a trickle amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, prices for oil, natural gas and fertilizer have climbed sharply.
“Fertilizer prices are way up,” says Noah Gordon of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noting increases of roughly 30 percent in some regions. That rise matters because Gulf states — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran — are not only big fertilizer producers but also major suppliers of the raw inputs used to make fertilizer elsewhere, especially natural gas and key minerals.
Interruptions to those flows are already having effects. Higher energy and feedstock costs have forced some fertilizer factories in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan to suspend operations. The result is fewer nutrients available for farms at a time when many countries are preparing for planting seasons.
The global fertilizer trade was already shaken by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when buyers sought Middle Eastern supplies as substitutes. Máximo Torero, chief economist at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, warns that option is far less feasible now: the loss of Gulf exports creates an immediate global shortfall and there are no large, strategic international fertilizer stockpiles comparable to those for oil.
Torero identifies the places likely to feel the pain first: in South Asia — Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka; in East Africa — Sudan, Kenya and Somalia; and in the Middle East — Turkey and Jordan. How soon and how severely each country is hit will depend on the timing of local planting cycles.
India’s main planting season begins in June, and researchers and farmers are anxious. Avinash Kishore of the International Food Policy Research Institute in New Delhi says preparations for inputs should already be underway, and there is growing worry about what a prolonged conflict would mean for the next cropping season.
Rising oil prices from disruptions to shipping add another pressure point. Farming depends on fuel for tractors and machinery, and moving harvests to market becomes more expensive. Torero says the cumulative effect will likely be less food available in markets and higher world food prices.
Rice highlights the human stakes: in many poor households in South Asia, about half the household budget is spent on food, so even modest price increases can be devastating. Kishore warns that a 5–10 percent jump in food costs could be harmful for hundreds of millions of families, with children particularly at risk of malnutrition.
The conflict is also interrupting trade flows: major exporters such as India send basmati rice and fruits like mangoes and grapes to Gulf buyers, and those exports are being disrupted — a development that could further distort domestic price expectations.
Torero notes that if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to international shipping within days, markets could bounce back quickly and the interruption to food supplies may be short-lived. But until shipping and energy flows are restored, many countries face a precarious outlook for fertilizer, fuel and food prices.