If the worst-case scenario unfolds, flying could become highly stressful for passengers in the weeks and months ahead. Fears tied to the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns that jet fuel supplies could dwindle, prompting major disruptions to air traffic. Both the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have issued warnings about this possibility.
Airlines are already shifting higher fuel costs onto travelers. With kerosene prices surging, many carriers are introducing surcharges or raising fares to cover the extra expense. Spanish low-cost carrier Volotea, for example, has added a clause allowing a surcharge of up to €14 per passenger to be charged seven days before departure depending on kerosene price movements. Spain’s consumer group Facua has called this practice unlawful, accused the airline of opaque pricing, and filed a formal complaint. Facua warns that if unchecked, other airlines might adopt similar measures.
Beyond price increases, passengers face the prospect of widespread cancellations if fuel availability tightens — a reality already seen in parts of Asia. IATA warns Europe could face comparable problems just as the summer travel season begins. In response to potential shortages, many airlines have preemptively cut back schedules. Lufthansa recently announced the cancellation of around 20,000 flights planned for the coming months. Such disruptions leave travelers wondering what compensation or assistance they can expect.
Within the European Union, passenger rights are governed by the Air Passenger Rights Regulation. Under this framework, travelers whose flights are canceled are generally entitled to compensation ranging from €250 to €600, depending on distance, and to care such as meals, accommodation, and re-routing. The regulation covers all flights departing from EU airports, regardless of the airline’s nationality, and applies to flights arriving in the EU from outside only if the carrier is EU-based.
However, no compensation is due if passengers are informed of cancellations at least two weeks before departure. Consumer advisers expect airlines to give timely notice in order to avoid paying compensation and to sidestep disputes over whether a fuel shortage qualifies as an “extraordinary circumstance.”
The regulation allows airlines to avoid compensation obligations when disruptions stem from “extraordinary circumstances” beyond the carrier’s control — examples include strikes or natural disasters. Whether a jet fuel shortage would meet that threshold would depend on whether the airline could show it had taken all reasonable steps to operate the flight. Legal outcomes will likely vary by case, so passengers should examine cancellation notices carefully and seek advice if needed.
Outside the EU, rules differ. In the United States there is no uniform regulation comparable to the EU’s: each airline sets its own policies for handling delays and cancellations. The US Department of Transportation notes that carriers decide whether to provide meals, hotels, or other assistance. For canceled flights, US passengers are generally entitled to a refund of the ticket price but not to standardized compensation.
The US is expected to be less affected by a jet fuel squeeze than Europe, largely because it relies less on imports routed through the Strait of Hormuz. Estimates from transport and environmental groups indicate that supplies passing through the strait account for roughly 30% of kerosene demand in the EU. That exposure helps explain why fuel costs per passenger have risen noticeably: average additional fuel costs are estimated at about €29 for intra-European trips and up to €88 for intercontinental flights since the war began, increases that are reflected in higher ticket prices.