Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and Ohio offer contrasting tests of how national politics — especially former President Donald Trump’s influence and recent redistricting fights — are shaping local contests.
Two different redistricting stories are at play. In Indiana, a well-publicized plan to redraw legislative maps failed last year, and Trump’s operation has responded by targeting Republican state senators who opposed the proposal, supporting primary challengers as a form of political discipline. In Ohio, courts forced the state to adopt new congressional maps after rejecting earlier versions; the current map tweaks existing lines only modestly and does not uniformly advantage Republicans, producing a mixed, district-by-district landscape.
These contests arrive after a Supreme Court ruling that curtailed the reach of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, a decision that could encourage Republican-led states to consider eliminating some majority-minority districts and heighten redistricting battles heading into 2026 and beyond. At the same time, Trump’s sagging approval ratings and an unpopular second-term agenda have opened potential opportunities for Democrats in Ohio this fall, particularly in statewide and U.S. Senate races.
Four things to watch on primary day:
1) Trump’s retribution in the Indiana Senate
Trump rarely backs primary challengers to sitting Republicans, but in Indiana his team has targeted seven state senators who voted against a proposal to redraw House maps to create more GOP seats. Supporters say the challengers are holding lawmakers accountable; opponents say the intervention intrudes on state authority. State Sen. Spencer Deery, one of those targeted, criticized outside intervention as inconsistent with conservative principles of state sovereignty, warning that D.C.-based political money undermines the spirit of the 10th Amendment. Backers of the effort, including consultant Marty Obst, cast the push as appropriate consequences for resisting a top priority.
2) Two notable House primaries in Indiana
While most incumbents coast through primaries, two Indiana House contests are drawing attention. Rep. Jim Baird, 80, has Trump’s endorsement but has reported relatively modest fundraising ($283,000 as of mid-April). His principal challenger, state Rep. Craig Haggard, reported $173,000 and has backing from state Attorney General Todd Rokita and numerous local officials. Outside groups have been active: conservative Homeland PAC ran digital ads attacking Baird over his support for a bipartisan immigration bill, and a pro-crypto super PAC later spent to boost him. On the Democratic side, Rep. André Carson, the state’s longest-serving House member, faces multiple primary challengers amid calls from some Democrats for new leadership.
3) Which Ohio Democrats will face tougher fall fights?
Ohio’s current delegation is split roughly 10 Republicans to five Democrats. The new congressional map shifts partisan leans in a few districts, making reelection harder for some Democrats and easing pressure in others. Reps. Greg Landsman (Cincinnati area) and Marcy Kaptur (Toledo), the longest-serving woman in the House, drew tougher lines that increase their vulnerability; Kaptur, who narrowly won in 2024, is again a top GOP target. A crowded Republican field is lining up against her, including former state Rep. Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, former ICE deputy Madison Sheahan, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, and healthcare executive Anthony Campbell. Landsman’s GOP challengers include Trump-backed former CIA officer Eric Conroy and conservative activist Holly Adams. Rep. Emilia Sykes appears to face a less intense Republican challenge so far.
4) Can Democratic enthusiasm persist through November?
Since Republicans secured a federal trifecta about 18 months ago, several elections have shifted toward Democrats, producing higher turnout and stronger primary participation in diverse states. Democrats hope that continued enthusiasm, combined with the typical midterm advantage for the party out of the White House, can flip key Ohio races in 2026. Early voting in the Ohio primaries showed more Democratic than Republican ballots, by roughly an 11% margin, offering one early indicator of energy. In the governor’s race, former state health director Amy Acton is unopposed on the Democratic ballot; on the GOP side, Vivek Ramaswamy’s endorsement by Trump last November effectively cleared the Republican field. The Ohio Senate primary is quiet: incumbent Republican Jon Husted is unopposed, and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown faces only a nominal primary opponent.
What these primaries will reveal
Results will test whether Trump’s interventions can reshape state legislative fights and whether incumbents in both parties can survive intra-party challenges. Indiana’s outcomes will gauge how much national pressure can sway state-level politics; Ohio’s will shed light on how the new maps and shifting turnout dynamics might affect competitive fall races for governor, the U.S. Senate, and control of the House seats. Collectively, the contests will provide an early temperature check on Trump’s standing with Republican voters and on Democratic momentum heading into 2026.