An emergency meeting of Arab and Islamic foreign ministers in Riyadh underscored a single focus: Iran. The confrontation, which intensified after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, has spilled beyond immediate battlefields. Iran struck a major energy hub in Qatar after an Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field, and Gulf states now face a growing risk of being drawn into a wider war they had tried to avoid.
Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said Riyadh still prefers diplomacy and will not allow its territory to be used to launch attacks on Iran. At the same time he warned the kingdom would use all available means to prevent Iran from hitting neighboring countries that are not parties to the conflict.
Rising doubts about US protection
Across the Gulf, confidence in US protection has been shaken. The presence of large American military bases has not prevented multiple Iranian missile and drone strikes on Gulf targets, including oil infrastructure and civilian sites such as airports and hotels. Iran has pointed to US bases as a justification for some of its strikes.
That dynamic has produced public and private criticism of Washington. Saudi former intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal condemned the role of Israeli and US leadership, calling the confrontation “Netanyahu’s war” and suggesting regional warnings were ignored when the US and Israel pressed on. The US embassy in Riyadh was evacuated after being targeted by Iranian drones in March, a stark symbol of the limits of American shielding.
End of cautious neutrality
Commentary and think-tank analysis say the Gulf’s previous posture of “cautious neutrality”—designed to keep the states out of fighting while protecting economic development—has frayed. A Qatari-funded newspaper argued that US bases have eroded Gulf agency and constrained independent security choices. As attacks have struck Gulf soil, reliance on outside powers has been exposed.
Scholars and analysts note a shift in blame and frustration. Bruno Schmidt-Feuerheerd observes that early reactions placed responsibility largely on Israel and, to some extent, the US, but as strikes reached Gulf states the critique broadened to external actors more generally. Pauline Raabe of Middle East Minds says criticism of the US has become more open, even as individual reactions differ: Saudi Arabia has been forthright in its rebukes, Qatar more measured, and Oman has publicly urged allies to help get the US out of what its foreign minister called an “unlawful war.”
Economic targets and pressure
The UAE has suffered heavy attacks, prompting observers to warn that Iran may be trying to weaken the Gulf’s prosperous economic models. Destabilizing tourism, finance, and investment hubs such as Dubai would damage the foundations of Gulf modernization plans.
Long-term reassessment of ties with Washington
In the longer term, the conflict may force Gulf states to reevaluate their security relationship with the United States. Analysts expect formal reviews of whether US bases are net benefits or liabilities for host countries. But deep military integration and longstanding political ties mean any strategic pivot would be gradual.
Even before the current crisis, Gulf governments were hedging: Saudi Arabia reached out to Pakistan and Turkey, Qatar strengthened ties with European partners, and several states expanded relations with China and others. The war has accelerated these shifts, though experts caution that no alternative partner today offers the full spectrum of US military capability.
Limits of diversification and the search for stability
Security “hedging” is more complicated than economic diversification. Political differences among Gulf states, and rivalry that preceded the conflict, make coordinated action difficult. Still, what unites Gulf governments is a priority on regional stability. Their flagship economic plans—Saudi Vision 2030, Dubai’s global ambitions, and Doha’s development strategy—depend on a predictable, secure environment.
The central challenge going forward will be balancing the urgent need to defend territory and infrastructure with broader efforts to reduce dependence on any single external patron, while preserving the economic conditions that have underpinned rapid development across the Gulf.
This story was originally published in German.