About a third of all fertilizer shipped globally moves through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Shipping through the strait has fallen to a trickle amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and prices for oil, natural gas and fertilizer have risen.
“Fertilizer prices are way up. They’re up around 30 percent more in some parts of the world, and that’s significant,” says Noah Gordon, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iran are major producers of fertilizer and of the raw inputs—natural gas and minerals—used to make fertilizer elsewhere. Disruptions to those flows are already forcing some fertilizer plants in India, Bangladesh and Pakistan to halt production entirely as energy and feedstock costs spike.
The global fertilizer market was disrupted before, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. At that time, countries increased imports from the Middle East to substitute for lost supplies. Máximo Torero, chief economist for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, says that option is not available now. “The loss of Gulf exports creates an immediate global shortfall with no quick substitutes,” he warns, noting there are no strategic international fertilizer stockpiles like there are for oil.
Torero lists countries likely to feel the impact first: in South Asia—Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka; in East Africa—Sudan, Kenya and Somalia; and in the Middle East—Turkey and Jordan. The seriousness and timing of effects depend on local planting seasons.
In India, where the main planting season begins in June, farmers and researchers are uneasy. “The preparation for fertilizers and other inputs needs to begin already. There is a little bit of nervousness about what if the war continues for too long. What will happen to the next season?” says Avinash Kishore of the International Food Policy Research Institute in New Delhi.
Higher oil prices from the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz affect food production beyond fertilizer. Farming relies on fuel for tractors and machinery, and transporting crops to market depends on fuel. Torero says the likely outcome is “less food in the markets, and as a result of that, the prices of food in the world will increase.”
Rice—a staple across South Asia—illustrates the stakes. In poor households where roughly half the budget goes to food, even small price increases can be devastating. Kishore says a five or 10 percent rise in food prices could be detrimental for hundreds of millions of families, and children would be particularly at risk of malnutrition.
The war is also disrupting export markets. Major food exporters like India send rice varieties such as basmati and fruits like mangoes and grapes to Gulf countries; those trade flows are suffering, which could further affect domestic price expectations.
Torero says if the Strait of Hormuz reopens to international shipping within a week or so, markets could recover quickly and the disruption to food supplies would likely be short-lived. “We hope that quickly the markets can recover and we stabilize prices,” he says.