The long sandy beaches of Turkey’s Mediterranean region remain popular with tourists, but in recent years foreigners have also taken to cultural tours in eastern Anatolia and to diving, mountaineering and hiking in border areas that were long inaccessible because of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.
Official data show Turkey welcomed about 64 million tourists in 2025, generating roughly €56 billion ($64 billion). In 2024 the country overtook Italy in visitor numbers, rising to fourth place globally after France, Spain and the United States. Since the COVID-19 pandemic the sector invested heavily in comfort and safety and had hoped in 2026 to exceed 65 million visitors and about €59 billion in revenue. The Israel–US war with Iran, however, has derailed those plans.
Industry representatives say hotel reservations and tours in Turkey’s eastern and southeastern cities have been cancelled. Traditionally many Iranian tourists travel to Turkey for Nowruz, the spring festival at the vernal equinox, booking hotels near the border, shopping or visiting relatives in exile. This year those hotels are largely empty and few Iranians are visiting.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) reports an average of 3.3 million visitors from Iran annually in recent years; Iranians ranked fifth after visitors from Russia, Germany, Britain and Bulgaria. “Since the start of the war in Iran, travel from neighboring countries in the east and southeast has come to a complete standstill. It has also ground to a halt in the opposite direction,” said Onur Tuncdemir, head of sales and marketing at Ayanis Tour, which runs tours to Iran and Iraq and to neighboring Kurdish regions. He said recent weeks have been dominated by cancellations and deposit refunds, with an immediate impact on border-region economies. The sector had already been hit by anti-regime protests in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026, but since February 28, 2026 business has largely stopped; the end of Ramadan coincided with Nowruz this year, eliminating a normally busy period.
Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), stressed there is no danger to holidaymakers in Istanbul, Bodrum and Antalya and that cancellations there have not been massive. He noted increased caution among British travelers, while reservations from Russia and Germany have remained stable.
Oxford Economics warned inbound arrivals to the Middle East could fall 11–27% year-on-year in 2026 because of the conflict, affecting travel activity across the region and beyond. Gulf-state airports are major global hubs, accounting for about 14% of all flights, so disruptions could produce a domino effect. Analysts remain cautious because the situation is ongoing.
Mehmet Isler, chairman of the Aegean Tourism Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETIK), said the Turkish travel industry is resilient, having survived crises such as the pandemic, the Ukraine war and the Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict. He confirmed large cancellations from Iran and Arab countries but predicted tourist flows from crisis regions might shift to the safer Mediterranean, potentially benefiting Turkey. “The next four to six weeks will be decisive,” he said, and the sector is factoring in short-term losses.
So far Iran has not attacked Turkey, a NATO member and EU candidate, though NATO air defenses have shot down three missiles fired in Turkey’s direction. As Easter approaches, travelers are weighing safety; on March 11 the German Foreign Office issued a travel warning advising against non-essential trips to Turkish regions bordering Iran, Iraq and Syria.
This article was translated from German.
