Turkey’s Mediterranean beaches remain popular, but the country’s tourism boom has been dented by fallout from the Israel–US war with Iran.
Official figures show Turkey received about 64 million visitors in 2025, generating roughly €56 billion ($64 billion). In 2024 it surpassed Italy in visitor numbers and became the world’s fourth most-visited country after France, Spain and the United States. After heavy post‑pandemic investment in comfort and safety, the sector had targeted more than 65 million visitors and about €59 billion in revenue for 2026. Those expectations have been disrupted by regional conflict.
Tour operators and hoteliers say cancellations are concentrated in eastern and southeastern Turkey, where cross‑border cultural travel, diving, mountaineering and hiking had expanded in recent years. Many Iranians traditionally travel to Turkey for Nowruz, the spring festival, staying near the border to shop or visit relatives. This year those hotels are largely empty.
Turkey’s statistical institute (TÜİK) reports an annual average of about 3.3 million visitors from Iran in recent years, placing Iran fifth among source markets after Russia, Germany, Britain and Bulgaria. Onur Tuncdemir, head of sales and marketing at Ayanis Tour, which runs trips to Iran, Iraq and Kurdish regions, says travel from neighbouring eastern provinces has “come to a complete standstill.” He reports weeks of cancellations and refunded deposits that have immediately affected border‑region economies. The sector had already been weakened by anti‑regime protests in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026; since February 28, 2026 business has largely stopped. The overlap of Ramadan’s end with Nowruz removed a normally busy travel window.
By contrast, major holiday destinations such as Istanbul, Bodrum and Antalya have seen fewer mass cancellations. Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), says there is no widespread danger in those coastal areas and that arrivals from Russia and Germany have stayed steady, though British travellers are showing more caution.
Analysts warn of wider regional disruption. Oxford Economics projects inbound travel to the Middle East could fall 11–27% year‑on‑year in 2026 because of the conflict, a decline that could ripple outward since Gulf‑state airports serve as global hubs for roughly 14% of flights. Ongoing uncertainty makes forecasts tentative.
Industry representatives stress resilience after past shocks — the COVID‑19 pandemic, the Ukraine war and other regional crises — but they expect short‑term pain. Mehmet Isler, chairman of the Aegean Tourism Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETIK), confirms significant cancellations from Iran and Arab countries but hopes some visitors will redirect to Turkey’s safer Mediterranean resorts. “The next four to six weeks will be decisive,” he said, as businesses factor in near‑term losses.
So far Iran has not launched a direct attack on Turkey, a NATO member and EU candidate, though NATO air defences have downed three missiles fired toward Turkish territory. As Easter approached, some governments issued warnings: on March 11 the German Foreign Office advised against non‑essential travel to Turkish regions bordering Iran, Iraq and Syria, and many travellers are re‑evaluating plans.
This article was translated from German.