Balochistan's Insurgency Spreads Into Pashtun Districts That Had Long Been Spared

For two decades, the war in Pakistan's Balochistan province has been fought mainly in its Baloch-majority south and centre. That map is changing. Since June, armed groups have carried out at least 13 attacks in the province's Pashtun-majority districts in the north, areas that had largely stayed outside the insurgency until this summer.

The latest came in the first week of September. On 1 September, fighters claimed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) attacked a customs facility at Ziarat Cross in Pishin district, about 100 kilometres north-east of the provincial capital, Quetta, killing six security and customs personnel. Two days later, gunmen ambushed a paramilitary convoy returning from Ziarat district. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) said it was responsible, and more than a dozen personnel were reported killed, although the military has not formally confirmed the toll.

The context: two insurgencies, one province

Balochistan is Pakistan's largest and poorest province, rich in minerals and gas. Baloch nationalist groups have fought the state there for years, accusing Islamabad of taking the province's resources while leaving its people behind. The TTP, a separate Islamist movement, has been strongest in neighbouring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

What has alarmed security analysts is that both are now active in the same northern belt. The escalation began on 10 June, when gunmen on motorbikes struck police posts across four Pashtun-majority districts. Attacks have since been recorded in districts including Pishin, Ziarat, Zhob, Qila Abdullah, Loralai and Harnai. Analysts count 11 of these districts affected in total.

The Quetta-based analyst Rafiullah Kakar has called the shift "a relatively new and significant development", pointing to the groups' growing geographic reach and the possibility of tactical coordination between Baloch separatists and the TTP.

Why it matters

These districts are not remote backwaters. They sit astride two of Pakistan's most important trade routes: the N-25, which links Quetta to the port city of Karachi, and the N-40, which runs west to Taftan on the Iranian border. More than 100 cargo trucks have been set on fire on these roads in recent months, cutting commercial traffic through Quetta and costing hauliers heavily.

The expansion also undermines the government's argument that the insurgency can be contained to particular areas. Balochistan is central to Pakistan's hopes for foreign investment in mining and infrastructure, and each new district drawn into the conflict makes that case harder to sell.

There is a regional dimension, too. Islamabad accuses Afghanistan's Taliban authorities of allowing the TTP to operate from Afghan territory, a charge Kabul denies. Violence in the Pashtun belt, which borders Afghanistan, is likely to sharpen that dispute.

Key points

At least 13 attacks have hit Balochistan's Pashtun-majority districts since June, after years of relative calm there.
A TTP-claimed attack at Ziarat Cross on 1 September killed six security and customs staff.
The BLA claimed a convoy ambush near Ziarat on 3 September in which more than a dozen personnel were reported killed.
The military says it killed 48 militants in 72 hours of operations in Mastung, Sibi, Quetta and Kalat.
Attacks on the N-25 and N-40 highways have disrupted a key trade corridor.

The outlook

Pakistan's response so far has been military: intelligence-led raids and claims of heavy militant losses. Those figures come almost entirely from the security forces and are difficult to verify independently in a province where journalists' access is restricted.

The harder question is whether force alone can hold territory that the state is now having to defend for the first time. If the Baloch and Pashtun insurgencies continue to overlap, Pakistan faces a conflict that is wider, better connected and closer to its most important roads than at any point in recent years.

Image: Puffmuffin via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0