India and Japan Head Into a Month of Summits With Deal-Making Momentum
Favourable macroeconomic conditions have kept both countries at the front of Asia-Pacific dealmaking, as September's diplomatic calendar fills up.
India and Japan enter a densely scheduled month of diplomacy having led Asia-Pacific merger and acquisition activity, with both economies expected to sustain that momentum through 2026 on the back of favourable macroeconomic conditions.
September's calendar
India, China and the United States all face a month heavy with summits, at which trade terms, technology access and supply chain arrangements are the recurring agenda. For India, that calendar is an opportunity of a particular kind: it is one of the few large economies currently courted simultaneously by Washington and Beijing.
Why the deal flow matters more than the headline
M&A volume is an unglamorous indicator that tends to be more honest than sentiment surveys. Corporate acquirers commit capital on multi-year horizons, and sustained deal activity means boards are willing to underwrite a country's medium-term outlook with their own balance sheets.
For India specifically, that willingness has followed from a combination of factors:
- A large domestic market growing faster than most alternatives.
- Supply chain diversification away from single-country concentration.
- Deepening domestic capital markets, giving sellers a credible exit route.
Japan's different story
Japan's activity has a different driver. Corporate governance reform has pushed companies to deploy or return the cash they had accumulated for decades, and a weak yen has made Japanese assets cheaper for foreign acquirers while making outbound purchases more expensive. The result has been unusually high activity in both directions.
What could interrupt it
Both economies face the same external risk: an interest rate environment that has turned less favourable, with the US Federal Reserve now facing market pricing that leans toward a rate rise rather than a cut, and elevated energy prices feeding through from the Middle East conflict.
Higher global rates raise the cost of the debt that finances acquisitions. Deal pipelines respond to that with a lag of several months, which means the current momentum reflects decisions taken in a cheaper world.
The test
Whether the summits produce anything durable on trade access — or whether, as has often been the case, the communiqués outrun the implementation.