The Effective US Tariff Rate Settles Around 7.2%
Excluding refunds for illegally collected duties, the 2026 rate marks a durable shift in American trade policy rather than a temporary negotiating posture.
The effective US tariff rate for 2026 is estimated at 7.2%, excluding the impact of refunds for tariffs found to have been collected illegally.
The qualifier is worth pausing on. Part of the tariff programme has been through the courts, some duties have been ruled unlawful, and refunds are being processed. The headline rate is what importers face going forward, not what the Treasury ultimately keeps.
Why the number matters
An effective rate at this level represents a substantial shift from the position the United States held for decades. It is not a peak — individual sectors face considerably higher duties — but an economy-wide average, which is the figure that determines aggregate cost.
Averages of this kind conceal wide variation. Some goods enter duty-free; others face rates several times the average. The distributional effect across industries is far more uneven than a single percentage suggests.
Who ended up with deals
A consistent pattern has emerged. The administration concluded agreements with several trading blocs that did not launch reciprocal measures, while negotiations with those that did retaliate have proved longer and harder. Talks with China continue.
Recent activity illustrates the range of outcomes:
- Canada — talks collapsed, though Ottawa has been backtracking on seafood counter-tariffs.
- Mexico — optimistic on a deal, held up partly by a dispute over cheese names.
- Pharmaceuticals — sectoral tariffs reaching all remaining companies on 29 September.
What the WTO projected
The World Trade Organization expected world merchandise trade volume to fall 0.2% in 2025, followed by a modest recovery of around 2.5% in 2026 — a forecast built on the tariffs in place at the time, including a suspension of certain reciprocal measures.
A modest recovery from a contraction is not a return to the previous trend. It is stabilisation at a lower level of trade intensity.
The durability question
The initial framing of the tariff programme was as leverage — pressure applied to extract concessions, then removed. Three years on, with sectoral duties still being phased in and an effective rate holding above 7%, the structure looks less like a negotiating position and more like the settled policy environment firms must plan around.