Mary Peltola Poised for Victory in Alaska Senate Race
Democrat Mary Peltola leads the Senate race in Alaska, with strong prospects for both majority and ranked choice outcomes.
As Alaska counts its remaining ballots, Democratic candidate Mary Peltola appears increasingly likely to triumph over Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in the Senate race. With Peltola currently holding a lead of 3.7 percentage points, or more than 10,000 votes, her path to victory looks promising.
Current Vote Status
Recent analysis from NBC News’ Decision Desk indicates that with 96% of ballots accounted for, Peltola stands a good chance of winning either outright or via Alaska's unique ranked choice voting system. The final determination is expected to materialize by November 18, which is the deadline for mail-in ballots to be counted.
Explaining Ranked Choice Voting
If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, Alaska employs a ranked choice voting method. In this process, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed among the remaining candidates based on voters’ preferences. It’s crucial that voters rank all candidates; otherwise, their ballots are deemed “exhausted” and are not included in the final tally.
Peltola’s Lead and Sullivan's Challenges
Peltola needs to achieve just 53.8% of the outstanding ballots to avoid the ranked choice system altogether, a feasible target based on her recent strong performance, receiving 58% of the newly reported votes last Friday.
Sullivan, on the other hand, faces considerable obstacles. To overcome Peltola's lead through first-choice votes, Sullivan would need to secure a staggering 92% of the approximately 12,000 outstanding ballots, which is significantly above his current vote share.
Ranked Choice Prospects for Sullivan
Should the race progress to ranked choice voting, Sullivan's chances further diminish. Current analyses reveal about 11,300 ballots that have favored candidates other than Peltola or Sullivan. If the total preliminary ballots with first-choice votes swell to around 12,000, he would then need approximately 93% of those redistributed votes to catch up—a near impossibility given existing voting patterns.
Moreover, a substantial percentage of voters who originally backed candidates like Gerald Heikes, currently third, have not ranked either leading candidate as their second choice. This “ballot exhaustion” could result in only around 6,600 votes being available for redistribution, greatly limiting Sullivan's chances to close the gap.
Remaining Decisions Ahead
The NBC News Decision Desk will continue to assess incoming ballots to confirm if a projection can be made before the ranked choice tally is necessary. As the situation evolves, all eyes will be on the results as they are finalized next week.