WTO Raises 2026 Goods Trade Growth Estimate to 3.9% Amid AI Investment Surge
The WTO has upgraded its global trade growth forecast for 2026, buoyed by increased demand for AI products despite ongoing Middle East tensions.
On October 8, the World Trade Organization (WTO) revised its global merchandise trade growth prediction for 2026, now estimating a significant rise to 3.9%. This increase comes as demand for artificial intelligence-related products has mitigated some of the disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel.
Positive Outlook for Trade Growth
The WTO's previous baseline forecast issued in March pegged growth at 1.9%. Encouragingly, the organization is now also projecting a growth rate of 4.1% for 2027, an increase from a prior estimate of 2.6%. Next year’s expected growth just slightly lags behind the 2025 forecast of 4.2%.
The jump in trade figures can be attributed to a remarkable 67% increase in merchandise involving semiconductors and data centers related to AI. This surge indicates a strong market appetite for goods that enable AI technology, demonstrating resilience in global trade.
Service Trade Faces Challenges
Conversely, the WTO has tempered its projections for the services trade sector, now estimating a growth of only 3.3% in 2026, down from 4.8%. High aviation fuel costs tied to the regional conflict are largely responsible for this downgrade.
Specifically, growth forecasts for transport and travel services, sectors heavily reliant on the Middle East, have been adjusted down to 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively. Nevertheless, a rebound is anticipated in 2027 with services trade expected to accelerate to 6.4%.
Regional Growth Projections
In terms of global economic performance, the WTO forecasts a 2.6% growth in world GDP for 2026. The most significant gains are expected in Asia, with a projected increase of 4.3%, followed by Africa and South America. In stark contrast, the Middle East is predicted to experience a sharp contraction of 4%.
The report highlights potential risks that could jeopardize these forecasts, including falling household purchasing power driven by elevated fuel and fertilizer costs. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global energy shipments, and ongoing repercussions from the Russian conflict in Ukraine could also pose threats. Additionally, any slowdown in AI investments may dampen growth.
AI’s Role in Trade Dynamics
The report elaborated on the robustness of merchandise trade, which has proven to be more resilient than predicted, attributed largely to the surge in AI spending. A notable 47% of all global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026 has stemmed from AI-related goods, although this growth remains geographically concentrated.
Interestingly, there’s an observed disparity between the growth rates of trade volumes and the dollar values of trade. For instance, while the growth in merchandise trade volumes hit 3.5% year-on-year during the first half of 2026, the dollar value surged to 15%, driven by escalating energy prices and strong demand for AI products.
Geographically, Asia is poised to lead trade growth, with import levels expected to rise by 9.5% and exports by 9.9% in 2026. Africa is also set for robust performance, with imports forecast to increase by 8.9% and exports by 5.6%.
In stark contrast, North America is anticipated to see subdued import growth at 1.4%, although exports are expected to grow by 5.7%. In the Middle East, both imports and exports are projected to decline sharply, by 15.4% and 17.2%, respectively.
The WTO report signals a slight easing of fragmentation between rival geopolitical trade blocs. Notably, the decoupling between the United States and China has accelerated, becoming a primary influence on global trade patterns. As an example, US imports from China dropped by 29% in 2025, reducing China’s share of total US imports from over 20% in 2018 to 9.3% today.